The Global Alcohol Market Changes Course: Six Years of Decline Before Returning to Growth
India Emerges as a New Consumption Powerhouse While Wine Faces the Steepest Contraction Among Major Categories
The global alcoholic beverages market is undergoing a profound transformation. After decades in which traditional Western markets largely dictated industry trends, forecasts now point to a very different landscape: worldwide alcohol consumption is expected to continue declining over the next six years and is not projected to return to growth until 2031. Yet rather than signaling a collapse, analysts view this period as a transition toward a new balance shaped by shifting consumer habits and a changing geographical distribution of demand.
According to a study by IWSR (International Wine and Spirits Record), global alcohol consumption volumes are expected to decline steadily until the beginning of the next decade. Nevertheless, the subsequent recovery should bring the market close to its 2025 levels by 2035, resulting in an overall volume loss of only around 1% over the entire period under review.
The Center of Gravity Shifts Toward Emerging Markets
One of the report’s most significant findings is that the future of the industry will no longer be determined primarily by Europe, North America, or China. Instead, consumption is expected to gradually shift toward emerging economies with growing populations and increasing numbers of legal-age consumers entering the market.
India stands out as the most remarkable example. Alcohol consumption in the country is projected to rise by 38% between 2025 and 2035, allowing it to surpass the United States by 2032 and become the world’s second-largest alcohol market, behind only China. Strong growth is also forecast for Colombia (+26%), Vietnam (+15%), and Mexico (+13%).
By contrast, several long-established markets are expected to continue losing momentum. China could see consumption fall by nearly 19%, while the United States may experience an 18% decline. Japan (-15%), Germany (-14%), and the United Kingdom (-13%) are also forecast to register significant decreases over the coming decade.
More Moderate Consumers, but More of Them
Moderation continues to establish itself as one of the most important structural trends in the alcohol industry. Health and wellness concerns, cultural changes, and economic pressures are all contributing to lower individual consumption levels.
IWSR estimates that annual per capita consumption of pure alcohol will decline by approximately half a liter by 2035. In practical terms, this is equivalent to consuming one fewer case of wine or two fewer bottles of spirits per person each year.
However, this trend will be partially offset by demographic growth. The global population of legal-age consumers is expected to increase by around 9% over the same period. In other words, although individuals will drink less, there will be more potential consumers overall, helping to stabilize the global market.
Wine: The Hardest-Hit Category
Among the various categories of alcoholic beverages, wine appears to be the sector facing the greatest challenges over the next decade.
While global beer volumes are projected to decline by about 1% and spirits by roughly 2%, wine consumption could fall by nearly 14%, representing the sharpest decline among the major beverage categories.
The trend is already visible in recent figures. Between 2024 and 2025, total global alcohol volumes fell by 2%. During the same period, wine recorded a 5% decline, compared with a 2% drop for beer and a 3% decrease for spirits.
For the wine industry, these figures reinforce a challenge that has been developing for years: attracting new generations of consumers in an environment where drinking occasions are becoming less frequent and interest in lighter, more versatile products continues to grow.
The Unstoppable Rise of Ready-to-Drink Beverages
At the opposite end of the spectrum are Ready-to-Drink (RTD) beverages, a category that includes pre-mixed cocktails, canned mixed drinks, and other convenience-oriented products.
RTDs grew by 3% in volume during 2025, and forecasts suggest an additional 17% expansion over the next decade. This growth reflects changing consumer preferences, with increasing demand for convenience, flavor innovation, and options that offer different alcohol levels depending on the occasion.
In fact, global RTD volumes surpassed the equivalent of one billion nine-liter cases in 2025 for the first time, underscoring the category’s position as one of the industry’s most important growth drivers.
An Industry Forced to Reinvent Itself
The study’s conclusions point to a challenging yet far from pessimistic outlook for the alcoholic beverages sector. The stabilization expected in the early 2030s highlights the industry’s resilience, but it also requires producers, distributors, and brands to adapt to a different type of consumer.
The geography of consumption is changing, younger generations are drinking less, and wine is losing ground to more flexible and accessible beverage formats. At the same time, markets such as India, Latin America, and parts of Africa are emerging as strategic growth territories for the future.
For the wine industry, the key question will be how to respond to this new reality. The challenge is no longer simply to sell more bottles, but to remain relevant to consumers seeking different experiences, greater moderation, and products that fit increasingly diverse lifestyles.
Sobrelías Redacción
Sobrelías Redacción